Anyone want to predict the weather?

Ok, so this post will hardly be a revelation to anyone in Singapore as everyone here knows how the weather forecast works but it’s still fun to compare to my previous home in the UK.

In good old Blighty, the weather forecasting I’d say is pretty accurate most of the time. If, mid-week, the Met Office says that an area of low pressure is moving across from the Atlantic and it’s going to rain all weekend where you are, then it probably will. And, conversely, if they declare a heat-wave is on it’s way, it generally means there is a good chance the BBQ is going to see the light of day soon. UK supermarkets actually plan their stock deliveries taking into account the weather forecast. Public holiday weekend+prediction of sun = Order 5 x usual amount of BBQ related items. (Even then they’ll run out by 10am Saturday morning as everybody descends on their local to clear it out of sausages, fingers rolls and crates of beer….)

Anyway, if we are to look at the weather forecast for London below then it looks like Sunday would be good day to get the BBQ out. In fact, having just checked the news back home at least one news site is using the words ‘scorcher’ so, returning to the point above, I can guarantee you the supermarkets will be on ‘BBQ stock high alert’ and Facebook will be flooded over the next couple of days with pictures of everyone in the UK in shorts and flipflops….even if doesn’t actually get above 15°.

I’ve actually planned the timing of BBQ’s based on the above type of hourly prediction. We were going to have one early Saturday afternoon but the weather forecast showed it was going to be cloudy until about 3pm and then sun would break through and it would be clear skies for the rest of the day. So I moved the event back a few hours. Lo and behold, 3PM and the skies cleared…magic!

And then we compare it to a typical Singapore 5 day weather forecast.

As anybody living here knows..this is basically the Singapore Met Office covering their arse. It’s going to be around 30° everyday, you going to get some sunshine and then probably a thunderstorm at some point in the day….simples.

I’ve learned that there is little point trying to work out whether it might rain in the afternoon. It’s generally sunny/light cloud in the morning and then it may or may not cloud over and hammer it down at some point in the afternoon. And if it does, you can go 10 miles west and find it’s still blazing sun with not a cloud in the sky.

In fact, lets look at today’s forecast to see if we can gauge how it’s going to pan out this afternoon. Um, cloudy, sunny and raining. Yup, that’s told me bugger all! It does very accurately predict that it will stop being sunny by 8pm though but being that it will be night at this point, that’s a pretty safe bet. I also note that the forecast for the next 4 days seems to be the same ‘sitting on the fence’ with rain/cloud/sun and an identical temperature range. I think they just moved the wind direction around randomly a bit each day so it didn’t look like they have just copied and pasted the same forecast across the whole week…

Maybe if I click the ‘further ahead’ button there will be a change in prediction for later next week?

Ah, yes, look…it’s going to be 26°-30° instead of 27°-31°. C’mon, this is just cheating! If we’re going to cheat, why not do it properly? Here you go, to finish off, I proudly present to you possibly the most accurate but meaningless Singapore weather forecast ever. Ta da….